discuss amongst yourselves....

[boogieshoes]

so today's question is:  where do you think air transport falls on the line of economical shipping options?  there are obviously trade-offs depending on circumstances, but in general, what do you think?  justify your answer.

the background:  lukejaywalker is fleshing out some background for a steampunk novel, and has decided not to have airplanes, although he does have dirigibles.  i told him that i thought airplane technology would have been developed even if, as he surmised, WW1 happened in 1890, and the US went into a severe economic depression for 30-40 years due to European powers defaulting on their loans.  one of the reasons i gave him was that air shipping was actually pretty darned economical for certain goods and services, better than trains and automobiles, even, although i don't know that they'd ever outrank ocean ships in economics.  now... i'm not so sure of my position, and it's bugging me, and i turn to you, my flist, to help me sort this out.

i still maintain that airplanes would be more economical than dirigibles for shipping, and that given that the majority of the research was done, the railroad industry would spur the development of gas-powered engines (which are needed for flight), thus fixing any lack produced by setting the Great War earlier than usual.  the rest of my arguments... i'm just not sure.


discuss, people, i want to see wild speculation in the comments!

-bs

Comments

[brownkitty.livejournal.com]

The thing with knowing that air shipping would be more economical is that it has to be around long enough for someone to figure that out, try it on a regular basis compared with other means of shipping, and do so for a "reasonable" amount of time.

I could reasonably see small planes, like Kittyhawk, around... as rich man's toys. I could also see those gas-powered engines you speak of being used on dirigibles, and right now I'm having really weird thoughts of a dirigible-Predator drone (which would of course depend on radio development and a few million other things ;)).

In short, while it may be more economical, I think that's an irrelevant concern. I don't think the economy he's outlined would get to the point that someone would be willing or able to invest in the infrastructure needed just for an experiment.

[killien.livejournal.com]

From what i have read rail transport is still the most efficent method of transportation

[argonel.livejournal.com]

Sorry, water still wins by a long shot. If you restrict it to overland transport rail is king. When you look at cost per mile*ton (or kg*km if you prefer) water costs pennies, rail dimes, and everything else dollars or tens of dollars. Unfortunately it's rather challenging building a navigable river across a mountain range, for some reason they all want to move downhill.

[lwj2.livejournal.com]

Presuming the development of internal combustion engines in Leo's world, something like the Spruce Goose might be viable for small air cargo.

Large heavy stuff would go trans-oceanic more cheaply on ships, whether steam or diesel. Trans-continental, I'd say rail is the least expensive option, again either steam or diesel.

[boogieshoes.livejournal.com]

i'm pretty sure that no matter what, if he sets his breakpoint at 1890, internal combustion engines will become available. the research is already there. *ponders more*

-bs

[thecrazyfinn.livejournal.com]

You need IC engines for dirigibles. The biggest argument in favour of them is a lack of jet engines and no Hindenberg-analog disaster (which is what killed dirigibles off in real life).

[thecrazyfinn.livejournal.com]

Air shipping is horribly inefficient for anything that doesn't benefit purely from speed.

There's a reason why air freight is almost entirely courier/mail business or small consumer electronics.

Dirigibles are a nice idea, and far, far better for any real amount of shipping than air freight but by and large rail and sea shipping simply is orders of magnitude more efficient. Dirigibles would likely make some things economic to ship by air which aren't today as they are more efficient for medium-size cargos than aircraft, but the development of their basic motive power (gas or small diesels) also benefits aircraft. But aircraft don't beat dirigibles for long-haul use without jet turbines.

Railroad industry also won't spur the development of gas engines. Rail and sea depend largely on the same basic motive technology (reciprocating or turbine steam or large-displacement diesel).